Odds of the UK leaving the EU?

[Mr. Unloadingzone]

Hi,

I'm sitting here in the US trying to figure out which news stories about England leaving the EU are accurate or just wishful thinking by both sides of the argument. To those in the UK, does the 54% of the population who want out of the EU reflect what will happen or will the UK remain in the EU but not be happy about it?

Thanks in advance for your insights!

Larry

[muddyfunkstar]

It won't happen. Doesn't matter what the opinion polls say, the government will steer things to stay in to protect their own interests. They've pushed back hard on having a referendum about it, and if there was to be one, the pro-EU lobby groups will easily swing the vote in their favour by painting the Anti-EU lobby as cranks.

The referendum on voting reform was a classic example - the anti-electoral reform campaign was dishonest, skewed scaremongering but it worked; and now there will never be electoral reform, because as far as government are concerned, the people have spoken. The same will happen with a EU referendum - they will scare the population in saying yes to the EU, to protect "our" (i.e. their own) interests, and that'll be that.

In a nutshell - The UK will only leave the EU if the EU as a whole collapses, despite the fact that the economies of half the member states are destroyed.

[Crow]

So, in other words.............It's inevitable.

[OregonNative]

The UK was smart to avoid the Euro. I know that's off topic, but just throwing that in there.

[insomnium]

It all depends how many other countries in the EU go down the tubes and need more bail-outs. If it reaches critical mass it could happen that Britain leaves the EU, but I can't see it happening any time soon. I agree any referendum will be rigged/stalled to prevent this in any case.

[Frosted]

Muddyfunkstar summed it up.

[muddyfunkstar]

The UK was smart to avoid the Euro. I know that's off topic, but just throwing that in there.

Yep, couldn't agree more.