Professor's 13 Keys Predict Obama Will Get Re-Elected
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• KEY 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
http://www.aolnews.com/article/profe...ected/19550593
• KEY 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
• KEY 2: Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
• KEY 3: Incumbency. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
• KEY 4: Third party. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 6: Long-term economy. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
• KEY 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
• KEY 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)
• KEY 9: Scandal. The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10: Foreign/military failure. The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
• KEY 11: Foreign/military success. The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
• KEY 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
• KEY 13: Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)
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