What will the future hold?

[Mohave]

So in less than 90 days, are we going to see a tax hike on snus?

No. On both counts. You won't see a tax hike because you won't see snus. At all. But it won't be 90 days.

What you are going to see is NO snus after it is fully implemented, but the reality of administering new statutes means it will likely take a lot longer than 90 days. Unless somebody gets extremely creative there will most likely be no delivery mechanism available for any internet tobacco orders of any kind, which is the intent of the bill's authors, and this will be accompanied by implementation of the FDA legislation which will restrict all tobacco products which were not already in wide distribution within the US before February 2007 from sale by any means including brick and mortar stores, and also any tobacco products containing flavorings.

Both bills are set to pass the Senate easily with overwhelming margins (barring the slim chance of a successful filibuster or major amendment on the floor) and both will certainly be signed into law since the current President was a sponsor and campaigned as a supporter, as did almost all members of the majority party in the Senate. This is the direct consequence consequence of the election. They are doing exactly what they said they would do if elected, whether y'all noticed it or not. There is little effective opposition left to slow down either bill. And most folks here probably won't choose to believe it until after it has happened.

[Kvlt]

So... What is there to do? I'm not going back to smoking, or using shitty american snus.

Hopefully the "blackmarket" is somewhat affordable.

Revolution 2, here we come.

We get to blast the bad guys in DC

[Mohave]

or using shitty american snus.

If both bills become law as currently written, shitty snus probably won't be an option either. The American Camel Snus was not on the market for nationwide distribution soon enough to meet the cutoff for "new" (and therefore unapproved) tobacco products under the FDA bill.

There are a few things that could still go unexpectedly right, at least in theory.

It is possible that either or both bills could be significantly amended on the Senate floor (though that is not usually how and where amendments succeed) or die in a filibuster or due to the press of other Senate business. Not likely at this point, but still possible.

It is possible that either or both of these legislative acts could be administered in completely unexpected ways which do not accomplish the clear intent of their legislative authors, and contrary to the intentions of the “health” interest groups which are now pushing them with executive branch support.

It is also possible that “informal” importation (which will be defined as criminal smuggling) will become viable. That would require intentionally deceptive packaging and labeling (“contents: arts and crafts supplies”) in violation of the package labeling mandates of the act to get through. I don't know how likely that is, since the PACT legislation includes $8.5 million annually for hiring dedicated enforcement agents specifically to find and stop “tobacco traffickers” and if I can find it on the web to order it then federal enforcement agents can too. But one can hope.

[chainsnuser]

I'd prepare for the worst, if I'd live in the USA.

This "Prevent All Cigarette Trafficking Act of 2009" will not work different than it's counterpart in the EU, where the import of cigarettes by mail even from other EU-countries is virtually impossible. It is not even illegal, but the prices you would have to pay (including taxes, duty and administrative costs of the vendors) are beyond all bearing, thus not a single vendor still sells cigarettes to (other) EU-countries, even the "adventurous" or "shady" ones among them have given up on this. As a smoker I regularly drove to a neighbour country with reasonable cigarette taxes and once the EU decided to handle snus the same way as cigarettes (like this "PACT-Act" does), I'd have to drive or fly to Sweden, and maybe I even would have to become a smuggler, no doubt.

Luckily the EU bans the sale of snus, but is absolutely fine with the personal imports, and the prices we have to pay are still reasonable. I hope it stays this way... and of course, I hope this shitty US-law gets rejected.

Cheers!

[Kvlt]

or using shitty american snus.

If both bills become law as currently written, shitty snus probably won't be an option either. The American Camel Snus was not on the market for nationwide distribution soon enough to meet the cutoff for "new" (and therefore unapproved) tobacco products under the FDA bill.

There are a few things that could still go unexpectedly right, at least in theory.

It is possible that either or both bills could be significantly amended on the Senate floor (though that is not usually how and where amendments succeed) or die in a filibuster or due to the press of other Senate business. Not likely at this point, but still possible.

It is possible that either or both of these legislative acts could be administered in completely unexpected ways which do not accomplish the clear intent of their legislative authors, and contrary to the intentions of the “health” interest groups which are now pushing them with executive branch support.

It is also possible that “informal” importation (which will be defined as criminal smuggling) will become viable. That would require intentionally deceptive packaging and labeling (“contents: arts and crafts supplies”) in violation of the package labeling mandates of the act to get through. I don't know how likely that is, since the PACT legislation includes $8.5 million annually for hiring dedicated enforcement agents specifically to find and stop “tobacco traffickers” and if I can find it on the web to order it then federal enforcement agents can too. But one can hope.

That's how I got my switchblade (which are illegal here). They imported it saying it was a "steel fork sample".

Hopefully if this bill passes, it only effects cigarettes, or our precious Snus companies find a way to get it here and prices don't go up.